Hillary's Circle, Donald's Trends, Jeb's Numbers & the GOP's Turmoil

Today, we at Civic Eagle are publishing a first in an ongoing series of articles dedicated to the Presidential campaign and events surrounding it.  Instead of our traditional blog posts, we will be posting a few graphs, tweets and/or links that get you up to speed quickly.  Some of the articles we link to will be longer reads, but we will try and include highlights from the pieces that get the main point so you can stay on the go. 



1) Vanity Fair published a profile on Hillary Clinton and her insular campaign in their November issue. 

Throughout her many years in public life—through all the disappointments and triumphs, the scandals real or alleged—Clinton has surrounded herself with protectors: a tightly knit Praetorian Guard, mute and loyal. The result has been the opposite of what was intended. When troubles arise—sometimes of Clinton’s own making, sometimes not—she retreats into a defensive crouch, shielding herself inside a cocoon of secrecy, with a small circle of intimates standing watch. With each new round of trouble and scandal, the circle seems to draw tighter. The penchant for secrecy—for all operations to be closely and privately held—increases by yet another increment. But this never proves to be a solution. The secrecy and the closed nature of her dealings generate problems of their own, which in turn prompt efforts to restrict information and draw even more tightly inside a group of intimates. It is a vicious circle. The current controversy over Clinton’s State Department e-mails—the use of a private “clintonemail.com” account for government business—is a classic case in point.
— Vanity Fair

2) Two graphs from a recent article at the FiveThirtyEight blog 

3) Over at the FiveThirtyEight blog, Micah Cohen, Nate Silver and Harry Enten debate if Jeb Bush should panic about his standing in the race. 


hjenten: Okay, here’s the thing: Bush is now advertising on TV heavily in Iowa and New Hampshire. If his numbers aren’t moving after a month, then why would they move in three months? After a while, you reach a saturation point. So the story doesn’t seem ridiculous to me.
micah: But Harry, maybe Jeb won’t see much growth in a month, while other candidates in his “lane” are still pulling support (i.e. Rubio, Kasich, etc.), but who’s to say Rubio won’t flame out in a few weeks? Same with Kasich?
hjenten: That’s a rather interesting point, Micah. I think that’s part of the reason using a wait-and-see approach isn’t the worst idea at this point. It’s October.”

– FiveThirtyEight.com



4) Finally, in a slight departure from the Presidential race, we take a look at House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s decision to step out of the race to become the next Speaker of the House.

‘We need a fresh face,’ said McCarthy in a post-meeting news conference, adding that he would remain in his current job as majority leader, the House’s second highest post. “I don’t want making voting for speaker [on the House floor] a tough one.”

“If we’re going to be strong, we’re going to be 100 percent united…. Let’s put the conference first,” he said, with his wife at his side.

There was an immediate push to recruit Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), the former GOP vice presidential nominee and chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Ryan is one of the few members of the House widely respected by both conservatives and moderates, newcomers and old-timers. However, Ryan has repeatedly insisted he is not interested in the job, including in a new statement issued after McCarthy’s withdrawal.

‘While I am grateful for the encouragement I’ve received, I will not be a candidate,’ he said.”
— The Washington Post